Confused about whether the "debate" on global warming is really over, and we are all going to die as proclaimed by Nobel "Lariat" Al Gore and his advisory panel of Climate Scientists including Micheal "Hockey Stick" Mann, or that it is all alarmist bunk, ala Fred "PetroLacky" Singer?
Here is the Real Deal... a poll of 500+ climate scientists (and ONLY climate scientists) from all over the world done in 1996 and repeated in 2003 conducted by Bray and Storch of the GKSS Insititute of Coastal Research in Geesthact, Germany. So what do Climate Scientists REALLY believe?
32% strongly believe that Global Warming is a process already underway. 34% believe it is likely so, 16% think it is probably so, 6% don't know, 3.5% think it is probably not, 5% think it most likely not, and 2.5% think it is definitely not. From 1996 to 2003, the average response has moved from Probably So to Likely So.
With regard to Climate Scientists consensus as to Anthropogenic Causation as the most important factor (which include urban heat sinks, greenhouse gas emissions and other various factors), 9% think it definite, 25% think it is likely, and 21% think it probable. 45% are neutral to strongly in disagreement. Between 1996 and 2003, the average consensus has moved from negative side of neutral to the positive side of neutral.
The "tipping point" argument, which states that we are at the verge of a catastrophic climate change, whether human induced or not, enjoys the support at some level or another of around 50% of climate scientists. The other 50% disagree with this or are neutral. The average response has changed since 1996 from slightly negative neutral to slightly positive neutral.
With regards to the question of whether Climate Models can accurately predict climate conditions in the future, less than 1% strongly believe so, 6% believe it is likely, and 28% think they are probably predictive. 65% of climate scientists have a neutral to negative opinion on the predictive capability of current models. The average response has barely moved since 1996, and remains in the likely NOT predictive column of the survey.
This represents less than 10% of the full results which I will publish as time allows over the next week or so.
To summarize so far, there is a consensus of Climate Scientists that say Global Warming is indeed occuring at some level. Climate Scientists are currently Neutral as to whether anthropogenic causes are the the major drivers, although they are tending to move into the man 'dunnit' column. Unfortunatley, we don't exactly know if they mean Greenhouse Gas or other anthro drivers, which, from a policy point of view is... uh... pretty FRIGGIN' important!
Climate Scientists are equally divided and officially Neutral on the "tipping point" argument... the "we are all gonna die" hysteria. Climate Scientists have moved in the "oh my Gawd" direction a little bit in the last decade.
Lastly, Climate Scientists have little faith in their climate models, the major tool used to "predict" climate change and anthropomorphic forcings. The consensus is that these models are likely wrong, and there has been little movement from that position in the last decade.
So in essence, they believe we are in a warming stage, but they are fighting about if Mankind is responsible, if we have some huge apocalyptic event facing us, and they think the Crystal Ball they use for looking in the future... well, it doesn't really work.
I have a lot more coming in the days ahead... including what parts of the Crystal Ball the climate scientists believe are more reliable than others, the extent they think the press drives their or their colleagues research choices and topics, how their own personal values are integrated into the science, and much more...