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November 23, 2009

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People/scientists are always more zealous when the data support only a small fraction of the weight of their favorite dogma. Much repetition of a few facts makes for buoyancy, the windbag dirigible gets airborne and stays afloat for decades until a newer, better lighter-than-fact -machine grabs all the attention and funding.

All published data aside, I am personally curious whether the cooler-than-normal conditions of this past year will endure into the peak of sun-spot activity 5 or 6 years from now. Regardless of whether anthropogenic CO2 causes the warming, if warmer-than-normal conditions resume, public support for CO2 limits will return.

Please excuse the off topic post:

Today, the average NYNX gas price for 2010 is $5.29. Tudor Pickering and Holt is predicting a NYMX average price of $7.50 for 2010. I have been watching TP&H since they sent you that bizarre piece regarding Berman’s work, as the piece suggested to me there is something seriously wrong at TP&H. Are they defending a prior commitment / position, or are they really unpolished geniuses? I hope they are right, but they are certainly out on a limb on this one.

Choke if you really believe in these guys, here is a ticket to some easy money.

http://www.ogj.com/index/article-display.articles.oil-gas-journal.general-interest-2.economics-markets.2009.11.tudor-pickering_holt.QP129867.dcmp=rss.page=1.html

HOUSTON, Nov. 5 -- Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. (TPH) foresees a fairly dramatic recovery in natural gas prices next year, a spokesman told an Oct. 29 energy finance summit at Rice University’s Jess H. Jones Graduate School of Business.

Bobby Tudor, chief executive officer of the investment bank, said TPH early this year finished a gas supply study in which it forecast gas prices will average $7.50/Mcfe on the New York Mercantile Exchange during 2010 and $6.50/Mcfe in 2011.

check these out:

http://theblogprof.blogspot.com scroll down and read on

http://camirror.wordpress.com/

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